I’ve never been shy about admitting when I am wrong. It happens often enough that I get quite a bit of practice. So what am I wrong about this time?
Well, my last blog entry asserted that the Republican Gubernatorial Primary wasn’t going to happen since Josh Penry had dropped out of the race. Then lo and behold, Westword’s Michael Roberts reported that former Congressman Tom Tancredo said that he fully intends to run for Governor, giving Scott McInnis the primary that Josh Penry refused to give him.
This is a best case scenario for Governor Bill Ritter and a worst case scenario for Scott McInnis.
In Tancredo, McInnis has a primary opponent that has absolutely nothing to lose, and could care less what anyone else in the Republican Party thinks about him. That’s a very dangerous opponent to have.
Whether Tancredo can actually beat McInnis or Ritter isn’t the issue. Tancredo is a media magnet and an effective campaigner. He will rattle McInnis in ways his campaign cannot even begin to imagine.
Remember, McInnis was the guy who was rattled getting asked questions by Craig Silverman. If Caplis and Silverman got under his skin, Tancredo’s going to feel like the Ebola virus.
I realize Scott McInnis will have a big 527 backing him and that 527 will certainly paint Tancredo as an extremist, but I do not think that will matter.
Tom Tancredo is used to running uphill in a campaign. He ran for President as a one issue candidate, but he was still able to get enough traction to last through a few debates and make the rest of the candidates respond to his one issue. He’s comfortable being an underdog and seemingly doesn’t mind the inevitable attacks.
Here’s the other thing, at Tancredo’s age, he’s not worried about his next political job or his legacy. So as bitter as the 527 attacks will get, it’s not like he has to protect his future like Penry did.
In the end, it’s hard to think Tancredo can beat McInnis in the primary. However, he can bruise, batter and abuse McInnis to the point that he will be very tenderized for the general election for Bill Ritter.
The one big favor Tancredo will grant McInnis is the political center. McInnis can go straight to the center against a very right minded Tancredo in the Republican primary.
That stance may hurt McInnis in the primary, but he’ll have no shot out “righting” Tancredo. Going to the center in the primary will help McInnis in the general election with Ritter, but that’s like saying a 15 round sparring match gets you ready for the title bout the next day.
As I said in the beginning, I could be wrong, again. But I honestly think I have a shot at being right on this one. Whether he likes it or not, McInnis will have himself a primary, and this time it’s not with a former protégé, it’s against a fellow former Congressman. And a fellow former Congressman that isn’t afraid to see it get ugly. In fact, I’m fairly convinced he likes it that way.