All of the recent talk about the end of the decade has made me think about how much air travel has evolved in the last ten years. As recently as May 2001, I could get through airport security in 2 minutes, run to my flight 15 minutes before its scheduled departure and drink my own bottle of water on the flight. In less than ten years, I need to allow an hour and a half to check in, remove my shoes to get through a long security line, and I can only drink airport bottled water.
The attempted terrorist act in Detroit on Christmas will certainly add a whole new chapter to the evolving adventure of air travel in the era of terrorism. It will be interesting to see how this affects the next ten years.
However, I believe this most recent act of attempted terrorism will help to exacerbate the conflict between the economics of air travel and keeping air travel safe.
Here’s what I mean. Since airlines have insisted on charging for checked bags, the use of carry-on bags has increased dramatically. However, what if new safety guidelines dictate changes in what you can carry on, further than we are limited already? Will airlines decide to retract those checked bag fees?
I think that depends not on safety regulations, but on how many fees passengers are willing to swallow along with new security guidelines. Where is that magical point where passengers decide not to put up with it anymore? If they don’t will passengers revolt, or worse, stop flying as much?
I am not naïve enough to think Americans will suddenly stop flying because of fees or more security hurdles. It’s our top choice for convenient travel, and we tend to have a high threshold of pain. But at some point, there will be too many security hurdles and too many fees to make all air travel make sense.
While we can’t Skype ourselves on vacation or home for Christmas, there can and will be more and more business done with technology, and not through the air.
So how will airlines handle this next evolution and remain profitable? If passengers take new fees and all of the upcoming new security hassles in stride, then maybe that’s an easy question to answer. But, if at least some passengers decide technology is easier, then how will airlines respond?
That’s an interesting question.
I wish I was smart enough to know what was going to happen, but the fact is I have no idea. The other problem is that ten years from now, it could be a whole different story.
If someone would have told me ten years ago that I would need to put my toothpaste in a little baggie before I went through airport security, I would’ve laughed in their face. If they would have told me that I’d pay $100 for my 2 bags to join me in the cargo hold, I would have laughed even harder.
Now, I’m not sure what kind of prediction it would take for me to laugh at someone right now. Honestly, if someone said standing on your head in a burlap sack will be part of the security measures in 2019, would you be shocked? Me neither.